South
Dade development and hurricanes are a deadly mix for the Keys
By Alan Farago
Oct.
4, 2005
Live long enough, and reality surpasses
whatever imagination one can bring to bear on the future.
Here is a fictional account of Hurricane
X, which ought to generate 200,000 letters from the Florida Keys
to the governor of Florida, Jeb Bush.
The letters should ask for the intervention
of the state in current and proposed zoning changes and permitting
of new development in Miami-Dade County that could make hurricane
evacuation from the Florida Keys impossible.
Here we go ...
Hurricane X has already devastated
Haiti. Now, this killer storm is tracking toward western Cuba, a
Category 3 storm curving like a bowling ball toward Florida.
At National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration headquarters, modelers predict the path of the storm
will cross the Florida Straits and attack the Keys from below, from
Key West straight to Key Largo and Miami-Dade county.
The latest data shows abnormally
high water temperatures, something fishermen from the Florida Keys
have been complaining about for weeks.
Hot water fuels intense hurricanes.
Whether it is global warming is beside the point now. Forecasters
predict Hurricane X will be a Category 5 storm with a devastating
storm surge by landfall, less than two days from now.
Moreover, modelers cannot be certain
about the forward speed of the storm.
Throughout the Keys, families pile
into cars, cradling photo albums, a suitcase or two and not much
else. There is not much talk. People have seen enough of intense
hurricanes the past years to know what is coming.
For more than two decades, the state
of Florida has tried to moderate development in the Keys, based
on the time it takes to evacuate for a hurricane.
Developers contested the state's
data and provided model after model, showing that phased and orderly
evacuation could allow more growth.
Now, hundreds of thousands of people
are taking their cue from satellite images showing the storm's gathering
intensity.
At Marathon, on the north side of
the Seven Mile Bridge, the progress of traffic stalls and grinds
to a halt.
Emergency planners and the governor
have prepositioned disaster relief at the South Dade emergency center,
but now discomforting word filters back to Tallahassee: all roads
leading out of South Dade are backed up.
U.S. 1, from Marathon, is solid traffic
— all lanes northbound and SUVs piling on the soft shoulders
have created an impassible logjam.
But even if traffic were moving out
of the Keys, the Florida Turnpike, U.S. 1, and Krome Avenue, vehicles
are stuck on the roadways like beads of sap on a pine tree.
Although growth in the Keys had been
limited, in Miami-Dade county the state has allowed West Kendall
and South Dade to be jammed with new cities without providing any
new capacity for evacuation. More than 100,000 new residents, in
just the past five years.
Production housing developers, land
speculators, and farmers had all pressed county commissioners to
allow the rapid conversion of open space into housing, with no planning
for the effect of a mass evacuation from the Keys piling into an
evacuation from South Dade: a rear-end collision.
It was all so predictable.
Emergency management officials in
the Keys are now apoplectic. The storm is accelerating.
With less than 24 hours before landfall,
hundreds of thousands of cars are stranded and running out of gas,
a scene eerily similar to what happened in Texas with Hurricane
Rita only a few years earlier.
But not 50 miles from the Gulf. Fifty
feet. The Gulf is already rising. People are abandoning their vehicles
on the Seven Mile Bridge and walking back toward Bahia Honda.
The governor of Florida realizes
that quick decisions need to be made. He has the sinking feeling
that he will have to take ownership for all the bad decisions made
years ago.
Those decisions allowed zoning changes,
water use and building permits for massive new developments in South
Dade without any planning for the worst case evacuation scenario.
In Tallahassee, emergency managers
face the governor around a conference table. "What do you want
to do?" they ask the governor.
The governor says decisively, "Wherever
they are, turn them around. Send them home."
There is silence in the room. The
governor knows he is sending people home to face a Category 5 hurricane
and storm surge higher than many rooftops. "Have you forgotten,"
one manager says, "all lanes of traffic are northbound."
And that is how Hurricane X unfolds.
One of the greatest disasters in U.S. history.
You will never want to roll up the
windows of your car against a killer hurricane to ride out the storm,
so it is time to roll up your shirtsleeves and write to Gov. Jeb
Bush.
Ask the governor to stop any decisions
that could lead to moving the Urban Development Boundary in Miami-Dade
County, and to require new analysis of the carrying capacity of
South Florida in the light of hurricane evacuation needs in a worst
case scenario.
This is one message that leaves no
one behind. |